Daily Briefs


Photo : Global Times

03 February 2022 | Thursday | China Reader Evening Brief | Vol.1, No. 105

President Putin’s upcoming visit to Beijing: Review of a Jamestown Opinion

The essay looks at Putin’s upcoming visit to Beijing and Xi’s dilemma over strategic approach to the ongoing Ukraine crisis.

IN FOCUS
By Sukanya Bali

President Putin’s upcoming visit to Beijing: Review of a Jamestown Opinion

On 28 January, Jamestown Foundation published an Opinion titled “Vladimir Putin’s Mission to Beijing.” The essay analyses the relations between Beijing and Moscow and the ongoing Ukraine crisis. In the last few months, Russia has amassed thousands of troops along the Ukraine border which has raised international tensions. 

The author - John S. Van Oudenaren stresses the dilemma President Xi Jinping is facing amid the Ukraine crisis.  On the one hand, Xi has an interest in averting an escalation of the standoff in Ukraine that could undercut the global economy, on the other, he recognizes the significance of the Sino-Russian partnership, which is seen as far more viable if Russia and the West remain at permanent loggerheads.

There are two major takeaways from the above opinion.
First, Beijing takes in the Ukraine crisis and its Strategic partnership with Moscow. 
In December, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said: “China calls for the resolution of the Ukraine crisis through peaceful means and political dialogue” and “hopes all parties can work together, earnestly follow the Minsk-2 agreement and realize peace and security in Ukraine.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi chided NATO for the crisis and called for the revision of the current European security architecture. China also reaffirmed its support for Russia.

The crisis highlights the difficulty in synchronizing the strategic interests of Beijing and Moscow, in the region. Beijing understands the importance of its relationship with Russia and has affirmed its commitment, but chances of a coordinated proactive response to current crises is limited.  It has blamed the West for the current impasse and has urged Washington to address Russia's legitimate concerns over NATOs presence in its neighborhood. Beijing also criticized the US “cold war mentality” (冷战思维, lengzhan siwei) as a primary reason for the current crisis. 

The second takeaway is, over the economic and diplomatic challenges facing President Xi Jinping. 
Escalation of tension between Russia and the West would undermine the global economy. For China, there would be serious indirect economic and diplomatic consequences. As Xi seeks to strengthen his position in the CCP, ahead of the 20th Party Congress in 2022, a major war will further drag the pandemic-stricken country’s economic growth. The possibility of increased sanctions on Moscow would put Chinese economic interest in Russia at risk of secondary sanctions from the West. 

Russia’s revanchist policies along its periphery may have knock-out effects on China’s diplomatic outreach towards Central European countries. Due to the continuous threat of Russian aggression, CEE states will value China as a valuable economic partner, but the relationship with Washington will be their priority.  Putin’s demands on the removal of NATO forces and assurances that Ukraine and Georgia never be given membership in NATO, might push countries closer to Washington, undermining China’s regional ambitions like its Belt and Road Initiative. 

References:
“Vladimir Putin’s Mission to Beijing,” The Jamestown Foundation, 28 January 2022

IN BRIEF
By Dincy Adlakha and Avishka Ashok

INTERNAL
China hikes rare-earth quota to meet surging energy demand
On 2 February, Global Times reported that China set a quota for the first batch of rare-earths in 2022 at 20 per cent higher than the previous year. The quota was recorded at 100,800 for mining and 97,200 tons for smelting and separating. An independent industrial analyst figured that, “The 20 percent jump was mainly due to China’s surging demand for neodymium magnets, also known as Nd-FeB magnets, amid the new energy push in the country.” As per the Ministry of Industry and Information and the Ministry of Natural Resources, the quota will be shared amongst the four major rare-earth producers of the country. More than 85 percent of the rare-earths in the word are produced by China. (“China hikes first rare-earth quota of 2022 by 20% to meet surging new energy demand,” Global Times, 2 February 2022)

REGIONAL
Japan’s advisor to Prime Minister Kishida pushes for backing the resolution on China
On 3 February, the Strait Times reported that Gen Nakatani, an advisor to the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, believes that pushing China harder on the issue of human rights violation should be Japan’s way forward. The approach will put more pressure on the bilateral relations between China and Japan. In an interview, Nakatani said: “The resolution "makes demands of the government in very strong terms. I believe it's important that universal values are protected in China, so I want to press China on this even harder than in the past.” (“Japan should press China more on human rights: PM Kishida's adviser, The Strait Times, 3 February 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
President Putin shows faith in Sino-Russian stance against sanctions
On 3 February, South China Morning Post reported that China and Russia stand together in a united front against western sanctions. He said that the two countryes are building joint mechanisms to nullify the effects of the sanctions imposed on them by multiple western countries. He also said that China and Russia will resist the pressure from west at “every opportunity” and that Chinese-Russian ties are “not influenced” by ideology. Rather, they “concur or are really close” on most international issues. President Putin made the remarks only a day before his visit to Beijing for the Winter Olympics. (Teddy Ng, “We will resist: Putin affirms united China-Russia front against sanctions,” South China Morning Post, 3 February 2022)

US-China competition bill heads to passage in US House of Representatives
On 3 February, Reuters reported that a multibillion-dollar bill aimed at increasing US’ semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and boosting competition between US and China was advanced by the US House of Representatives. The bill includes 52 billion USD for subsidizing research and production of semiconductors in the US to manage the shortage of chips used in automobiles and gadgets. The shortage has been troubling the US for a few years due to supply chain bottleneck blockages. The House of Representatives aims to pass the bill by 4 January. Internal politics between the Representatives and the Democrats have delayed the bill uptil now. (David Shepardson and Patricia Zengerle, “U.S. House China competition bill heads to passage this week,” Reuters, 3 February 2022)

President Xi responds to letters of well wishes sent by US Mayors
On 2 February, Xinhua Net reported that President XI Jinping had separately responded to the letters sent by the Mayor of Tacoma Victoria Woodards and Mayor of Steilacoom Dick Muri. Xi responded to the letters and said that the Winter Olympics were an important and happy event for the Chinese people. He further explained that China saw the event as a great event for the international olympic cause. He said: “With the support of the Chinese people and the international community. China will certainly present a simple, safe and splendid Olympic Games, practice the Olympic motto of "Faster, Higher, Stronger - Together," and bring people across the world together for a shared future.” The President responded to the letters by the two Mayors who had extended greetings for the Lunar new year and best wishes for the Winter Olympics. (“Xi replies to letters from U.S. mayors, Xinhua Net, 2 February 2022)

President Putin and President Xi prepare to meet and attend Winter Olympics
On 2 February, Xinhua Net reported that the Russian President Vladimir Putin will be visiting China and attending the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics. President Putin is visiting China after three years and this meeting with President Xi will mark the 38th meeting between the two leaders. President Xi also expressed his eagerness for the get-together and said that he and China is ready to work with Putin “for a shared future to jointly open a new chapter in post-COVID China-Russia relations.” (“China will certainly present a simple, safe and splendid Olympic Games, practice the Olympic motto of "Faster, Higher, Stronger - Together," and bring people across the world together for a shared future," Xinhua Net, 2 February 2022)

Other Daily Briefs